All posts by TheReturnOfTheKing
I see. So you think that the new superpower will be something more left-field, a faction that people wouldn't have thought would rise up to rule the world at the original point of divergence, maybe one that didn't even exist at the time? Makes sense. Perhaps we're just not thinking fourth-dimensionally. When the Ottoman Empire does start to crumble, there will be powerful new factions trying to take advantage of the power vacuum and the Sultanate's old foes will be long gone or no longer players in their own right. Do you have any nations in mind?
Introducing more new countries is probably a good idea, I agree that we could definitely go more outside the box. Of course, we should stay within the realm of realism, as discussed earlier on this thread. In real life, I've noticed that countries seem to relate to cultures. Either a country develops based around a cultural or ethnic group, such as in Italy or Germany, or the culture develops around the country, such as in post-Norman England or in Canada. I feel like we should try to think about cultural evolution when projecting the idea of countries into the future. It's also worth remembering what we decided about nationalism and seeing how that comes into effect.
I've been wondering about that last point. I can't really see the Ottomans lasting as a superpower all the way to the present day, especially if they end up divided into vassal states. Thing is, I'm not sure who'd replace them. The Timurids? China? The Sibir Khanate? Someone else entirely?
Mr.Robbo wrote:
Good idea. The best way we can probably achieve that (besides good research, of course) is through consistency. Maybe some kind of global narrative to link everything together. There's something called world-systems theory which suggests that at different points in history you have dominant 'core' countries, dependent (or subsisting) 'periphery' countries and 'semi-periphery' countries in-between. That may help with getting an idea of global geopolitics in Atra Mors; for example, the Ottomans would definitely be a core country, in my opinion.Interesting. I glanced at the Wikipedia article, and I think I got the jist of it. So, should we try to identify which countries are core vs. peripheral or semi-peripheral? Although, the world-system is believed to have developed post-divergence as a result of European trade and exploration, so would it still exist in Atra Mors?
Mr.Robbo wrote:
There's another geopolitical theory from a while ago which split the world into three different regions. You have the 'pivot area' over much of Asia, the 'insular crescent' over the New World, Oceania and Subsaharan Africa and the 'marginal crescent' in-between. The idea was that the nations of the insular crescent (such as the UK and US) often place a lot of importance on naval power, the nations of the pivot area are largely land empires and the nations of the marginal crescent are somewhere in-between. The pivot area is so-called because, the argument went, most of the political drivers of the rest of the world come from within that region (the Mongol Empire, for example).
I dunno about this one. I feel like the regions being grouped together here don't really have that much in common. As for the pivot region, I'd argue that the only real "pivotal powers" to come from there are the Mongols and the Russians, and one could argue the Huns. Thing is, throughout much of history, that area wasn't home to pivotal anything - it was mainly herders and loose tribes who occasionally produced a Genghis Khan or Attila the Hun. Sure, the Mongols held power for a while, but they fell apart after Genghis Kahn's death and they spent much of that time splintering and losing power to other groups.
Mr.Robbo wrote:
Another way of thinking about things I've heard of in the past is that the natural order for the world is a semi-stable situation in which two or more 'traditional' powers play off against each other (Rome and Persia, France and Germany, Europe as a whole) to be overtaken by an outside power (Goths, Britain, America).Interesting idea. One can sort of see the same thing happening today, with the United States emerging as the dominant power after the Cold War, only to begin losing influence to rising powerhouses like China. How would that work in AM? I could see the Byzantine Empire and the Sibir Khanate being the two major eastern powers after the scramble for Europe, with maybe the Safavid Persians being the contender that rises up to replace them? Or maybe an African power, like the Ottoman-derived Egyptian Sultanate? Although, I suppose the Mamluks and the Ottomans would be the initial contenders for control over Europe, so maybe the Sibir Khanate ends up overtaking them after the Mamluks fall and the Ottomans divide themselves into tribute states?
I replied to this a while back, but Wikia ate it.
An interesting setting is a good thing, but we should probably look for where to draw the line between plausible speculation and the slew of what-ifs that is Romanum.
I could see some sort of Egyptian cultural renaissance or independence movement or whatever, but that wouldn't be a plausible alternate history scenario so much as us finding an excuse to include another culture/nation (on a similar note, maybe the Zayyanid nation in Europe should go?). Honestly, I doubt any North African powers would really want independence. There just wouldn't be any strong national identity there (besides which, the concept of a nation wouldn't really be a thing in this world - see earlier threads, can't remember which ones, where we discussed the history of nationalism in more detail). I think we should keep the Ottomans in the eastern Sahara, and the west would probably be dominated by Islamic nations.
The balkanized Africa would mean more cultures and civilizations, which is good in that it's more what we envisioned Atra Mors to be in the first place, but an Africa with more outside influence and some larger power blocs would probably be the more realistic route to go. Africa has almost always been behind the rest of the world in terms of technology and influence, so it makes sense that in most timelines, outside forces will have a lot of influence there. I think that in Atra Mors, that influence will be felt far less than irl, and it will probably be concentrated on northern Africa, specifically the Sahara. Sub-Saharan Africa might see some Islamic influence, and definitely plenty of cross-cultural interaction via trade, but it'll mostly be politically independent. I can see a few larger powers existing south of the Sahara, including Ethiopia, but I imagine it'll be mostly a large number of smaller powers rather than a small number of larger ones.
So, the point I'm rambling towards is, northern Africa will probably lie closer to the first extreme, central and southern Africa towards the second.
I'm still interested to hear Maj's opinion on this suggestion.
Maj?
I missed these big text walls :)
Mr.Robbo wrote: That was actually one of the most difficult decisions I had to make when creating the Africa map. That and the migration of the Aro Confederacy south. The Abyssinian-Adal war ended because both sides burned themselves out, though Ethiopia had Portuguese assistance. The thing that made me pause for thought was the fact that, historically, Ethiopia has generally been a very resilient nation against invaders, even against European imperialism.
The reason for this is the landscape of Ethiopia; very mountainous, giving the defenders a big home advantage and making it easier for them to hold on or continue an insurgency. The empires of Persia have been resilient for similar reasons. So basically the decision over whether Ethiopia would survive came down to geopolitics versus historical circumstances. I think geopolitics is something important to take into account in alternate history because, while historical events become more and more uncertain as you move further from the point of divergence, geography remains much more constant and history often repeats itself this way.
In the end, I decided to avoid the decision somewhat by reasoning that the weight of the Islamic conquests would be shifted more toward Europe, giving Ethiopia a better chance of holding on. Alternatively, the conquests are a success and lead to the establishment of a new Islamic Ethiopia, still largely centred around the easy to defend mountainous regions of East Africa (this draws some parallels to mountainous regions following the Viking conquests of parts of England).
That makes sense. I reasoned that the Ethiopians were already waging guerilla warfare against the Atalian invaders (I hope that's the correct demonym), so depending on complicated logistics I know nothing about, they might've stood a chance. All I really know is that guerilla warfare has a good track record, and the Ethiopians would've had, as you said, a geographical advantage, living in rugged, mountainous terrain.
Mr.Robbo wrote: King: maybe start from scratch and try to be more historically accurate
Wha - wait, when did I say that? Did I actually say that?
Goes back to post #30
Ohhhh, that. I was thinking more about my own maps than the project in general (in particular, I think the Aztecs have got to go, and the Iroquois would never have gotten that big irl). Still, I see where you're coming from there.
Mr.Robbo wrote: That's something I've been thinking about myself. After going back over my maps and notes I've started to notice more and more inconsistencies and unlikely events which I think merit some changes to the maps, if not re-drawing them entirely.
Looking back over some of the things I've written, I wonder if I've been slightly preoccupied with preserving native cultures when it seems likely (or at least possible) that the scenario of Atra Mors would actually lead to a much more Islamified world.
It's something to consider, anyway. As King mentioned, a more historically accurate alternate history would be a desirable outcome, especially now I've got more of a grasp on the important events of non-European history.
I agree, although it would be painful to go back to square one after all the work we've done. Still, a major overhaul is a good way to promote activity, which is something I sorely need (the Nexus-wide overhaul might be the only reason any of us are still here in the first place). I'm undecided, but I'm interested to hear Maj's opinion on this suggestion.
Well, the war was devastating for both the Ethiopians and the Adalians (is that the correct demonym?), to the point where it simply wouldn't have been in the further interests of Adal to launch another invasion, so I don't see how the threat of Portuguese intervention would've had much of an effect there.
Huh, I didn't realize Robb had disappeared, but then, I haven't been here much myself lately. Last I heard, he was busy with college, so I imagine he's still coping with that heavy workload and that's why we haven't seen much of him? Hopefully, he hasn't left entirely. We should try and get in touch with him.
As for Atra Mors, I'm not sure what I can do to finish it. I'm simply not a historian in any sense of the word, and the scope of this project is too big for the kind of guesswork and handwaving that went into Romanum and most of the other verses on this site. Although I suppose I could get some work done on the North and South America maps, if I have time, if I can get Photoshop, I don't think I can really do much about reinvigorating AM.
On a slightly less gloomy note, what do you mean about my avatar? I noticed Kray's avatar briefly disappeared a few days ago (or it might've been several weeks, time moves strangely on the Internet), so maybe there's a glitch in Wikia?
As for Ethiopia, how influential was the assistance of the Portuguese in changing the course of the war? The Wikipedia article (this being a fairly obscure war, that was all I could find) mentions that the Portuguese sent 400 musketeers to assist existing Ethiopian guerrilla fighters, would that have been enough to turn the tide of the war or could the Ethiopians have won on their own?
You can include Iceland as part of North America, it's closer to Greenland (1,210 km away) than it is to Norway (1,472 km) and would likely be considered that way IRL if it weren't so culturally close to Europe.
I'm not sure about that. Though Iceland would have geographical ties with North America, culturally, it's always been European. There were no indigenous Icelanders there when the first Viking colonists came, and I can't think of any North American factions who'd be willing or able to colonize it. I mean, sure, the Terrible Death reached the island and would've killed off most of its inhabitants, but if only a fraction of them survived, then Iceland would still retain a European culture simply because there's no one else there. Besides, at some point, some Eurasian faction will see this large, sparsely (if at all) populated island in the North Atlantic and decide to colonize it. Bottom line is, I think Iceland will probably remain a part of Eurasia in this universe. Greenland will probably be another story without Denmark, but that's off topic.
Nice! You did a good job of combining the Asian and European maps, and I like what you've done with Siberia. Nice to see a large number of small nations, too. Once I get my new computer so I can install Photoshop, I really need to start working on the N. America map, maybe start from scratch and try to be more historically accurate. I think the Aztecs are going down, they just had too many enemies and all the Spanish did was take advantage of an existing conflict. There would've been a major rebellion with or without Cortez, getting rid of him would just delay the inevitable. Question is, what factions would replace them? Research time, I guess (sigh).
Btw, where'd Tibet go?
Just found an interesting video which talks about an AU scenario which is essentially the opposite of Atra Mors, in that European imperialism never ends. link
Hey, Robb? You remember that list you were thinking about? Is it still feasible for you to do it?
Computer was being glitchy and I couldn't reply earlier :(
I like that idea of a sort of Tungusic union, maybe something based in Manchuria around the Yenisei River (although that area and it's inhabitants has been seriously affected by China and Japan throughout their history/ies, with one of the indigenous nations (the namesake Manchus) going as far as actually conquering the Chinese Empire and being treated horribly ever since the fall of the Qing Dynasty), but given the geographic separation between the Evenks and the Yenisei River nations, I think it's unlikely that the Evenks would be significantly involved in such an alliance.
By the way, do you think you're going to have time to work on that list of factors you proposed for the Sibir Khanate? If you're too busy, I could try to help, but I don't really know exactly what you're aiming for and my knowledge of the subject is fairly poor.
Okay, um... Evenk nation? Possible? Likely? What would it be like? Could it last to the present?
Found an interesting video from AlternateHistoryHub on Youtube about a scenario where the Scramble for Africa never occurred. There's still a lot of European influence on the continent, leading to the formation of large empires on the continent's coast built on trade with the big empires while the interior remains mostly tribal with very little political unity.
It got me thinking, we have a lot of large empires in this universe, so who's to say they wouldn't try setting up colonies in Africa at some point? Granted, that sort of goes against the point of the scenario, but maybe at least one major power, such as the Ottomans, sets up a colony or colonies in Africa (not necessarily the one which becomes the Mamluk-ruled Egyptian Sultanate) and a group in the surrounding or neighbouring region becomes a powerful conqueror thanks to trade with the Ottomans.
Mr.Robbo: Bummer, hope you feel better soon :(
A list like that would definitely be a very good idea. In fact, maybe we should make a few of those for some of the factions and regions we're not totally sure about, such as the Orient (Japan, China, Korea, etc.) and maybe some of our European countries. Not sure how much help I'd be able to provide in the writing of this list, but I'd be happy to contribute.
Maj: Perhaps we should think up a list for them like the one Robb is proposing above?